Introduction

I'm an older guy, in my fifties. My wife and I have a small home based business vending software that I author. We live in the White Mountains of Arizona at 7000 feet. I am a student of economics and peak oil and have been for years.

Those reading this blog will likely know something about peak oil. Many will have an opinion on the subject. And much of these opinions are based on the opinions of others. I have found there are a lot of misunderstandings about the condition of our civilization and our future.

It is easy being born into this modern world to assume it will exist as it always has, into the future. If a broader look is taken of this industrial revolution, as it fits into the history of man, it can be seen as a rather abrupt event. The population of the planet has grown by almost four times in the last one hundred years. Our apatite for energy has exploded in the last fifty years.

(http://www.env.go.jp/en/wpaper/1994/eae230000000000.html)

Resources are limited. There is no getting around that. And foundation of the resource pyramid is energy. As we exhaust the 'easy to exploit' resources it takes more energy per unit to exploit into the future. So, if world economies are to grow, the required energy grows at an even faster rate. I will later address the, "But the technological revolution will enable us to use less energy", in future posts. But, to wit, it has fixed little to date where our need for energy is concerned.

The first threat to energy peaking is oil, the foundation of our transportation systems. To properly assess our condition reliable data is necessary. Here we have a problem. The IEA has been publishing numbers that may have little meaning. I have some of there old documents that reflect the graph below on an old hard drive. If I can't find another copy in the future, I'll see about retrieving them.

(Source)

There seems to be plenty of evidence now that there is, and will not be, the capcity to produce more than what is being produced now. There is also evidence that a lot of the larger fields in the world are, and will soon be going into decline. There strong evidence that there will never be the kind of discoveries needed to offset these declines, much less provide for new demand. In other words, the world is now very likely facing peak oil.

And if it is not, it is just around the corner. Can we fix this? It would require a lot of sacrifice by the West and the rest of the world. It would require that the whole world acknowledge the challenge and start fixing it with a vengeance. It would require the world as a whole to understand that growth, like we have had in the past, is not possible into the future. I'm not one that sees the world holding hands and singing, Kumbaya. So, what is in our future?

Thanks, Dan.